By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
Once again there are four conference games this week for the Mountain West teams while both Pac-12 teams will travel to MW opponents.
The marquee matchup once again involves Boise State as they will play host to San Jose State.
The Friday night game features the surprise team of the MW as Colorado State looks to remain unbeaten in conference play, battling for the Bronze Boot with Wyoming.
In Week 10, I went 4-2 in my MW picks, bringing my record to 68-15 on the season, good for an 82% success rate.
Here is how I think the six games on the docket will play out.
Wyoming at Colorado State
Friday, November 15
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Colorado State –10.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5
Wyoming is coming off a bye week following their best offensive outing of the year in the 49-45 win over New Mexico.
Colorado State is hot, winning their last four and five of their last six outings.
With no Boise State on the schedule the Rams can start to eye a 7-0 MW record and spot in the title game.
But they are just 1-7 in the last eight Border War meetings with the Cowboys.
Wyoming wins if…Kaden Anderson is the real deal. The freshman QB made his first career start against New Mexico and was stellar.
Now, the question is: Was that a case of going against the UNM defense or can he produce week in and week out? We’ll find out against CSU.
Colorado State wins if…the defense continues to drive the bus. The CSU defense has held teams to 24.1 points per game this season and Wyoming could have a hard time moving the ball against them.
If the Rams take care of business on that side of the ball, they should remain perfect in conference play.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Colorado State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Colorado State
Hawai’i at Utah State
Saturday, November 16
12:00 pm PT, Spectrum
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Hawai’i –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 59.5
The Aggies have won the last seven meetings between the teams with five of those victories by 20+ points.
This one has a different feel to it, though.
Hawai’i has won two of their last three and looked good against UNLV last week.
The Aggies have looked lost all season, especially on defense, and limp into this one having lost seven of their last eight games.
Hawai’i wins if…they can continue to run the ball a little bit. UH is 122nd in the nation averaging just 102.3 yards per game on the ground, but in the last three games they have gone for 145.3 per game. Against the Aggies, they should be able to move the football.
Utah State wins if…they avoid turning it over. The Aggies have turned it over eight times in the last four games. The defense has struggled and USU can’t afford to give opponents a short field.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Hawai’i
No. 13 Boise State at San Jose State
Saturday, November 16
4:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Boise State –13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 61.5
The Broncos had a slight scare with Nevada at home last week but got the win and still control their fate in the CFP push.
The Spartans picked up a win over Oregon State to become bowl-eligible for the third season in a row.
It’s the first time since having four straight seasons with winning records from 1989-92.
Boise State wins if…they can run the ball. If Ashton Jeanty can get loose the Broncos will be in good shape. SJSU is allowing 183 yards on the ground in their losses compared to 135.3 in their wins.
San Jose State wins if…they can throw the football. The Spartans have the fifth-best passing offense in the nation while the Broncos have given up yardage through the air this season.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Boise State
San Diego State at UNLV
Saturday, November 16
7:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV –20.5
Over/Under Point Total: 53.5
San Diego State has played some good defense this season, but the offense has yet to get unleashed as I expected in the preseason.
The Rebels are a complete football team. The defense can and will step up if the offense struggles against the Aztecs.
San Diego State wins if…they can throw the football. The Rebels have given up a lot of passing yards this season. The Aztecs’ only path to a win is a big game for Danny O’Neil.
UNLV wins if…they score 21 points—do that and SDAU will not score enough to win. SDSU is really struggling to score; last week New Mexico held them to 16 points. The Rebels should completely dominate this one on the defensive side of the ball.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Under
Outright winner: UNLV
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Oregon State at Air Force
Saturday, November 16
12:30 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon State –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 44.5
The Beavers season is starting to spiral as they have now lost four in a row and the offense has sputtered in the last two.
The Falcons have had a rough season but are coming off a big win over Fresno State last week.
I like the Beavs to get right in this one and the score should stay low.
Oregon State wins if…they can convert on third downs. The Beavers are 16th in the nation converting on 47.4% of third downs. Air Force has done a good job getting teams off the field on third downs with an opponent success rate of 36.5%.
Air Force wins if…they can run the football. Last week the ground attack finally looked like an Air Force offense as they ran all over Fresno State. Oregon State has had trouble stopping the run allowing 172.9 per game.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon State
No. 18 Washington State at New Mexico
Saturday, November 16
6:30 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State –12.5
Over/Under Point Total: 72.5
If you like offenses, this is the one for you.
That over/under line could be a bit conservative as both teams can light up the scoreboard and neither one tends to stop a lot of teams.
Washington State is looking for their first 9-1 start since 2018 and is the much better team. The Cougs will give up points, so I like the over in this one.
While the Lobos will score, I don’t see it being within a couple of TDs in the end.
Washington State wins if…they can get a few stops—and really only a few. Last week was the first time this season the Lobos won a game without scoring 50 points. I don’t see WSU giving up that many.
New Mexico wins if…they don’t get gashed with explosive plays. UNM has allowed 59 plays of 20+ yards this season, the third most in the nation. WSU is 11th nationally with 55 scrimmage plays of 20+ yards.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Washington State
Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks
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writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
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