Vikings QB Sam Darnold is undoubtedly having the best season of his career after signing a cheap one-year contract with the Vikings. The player, who prior to that had been classified as a bust, has proven his doubters wrong, proving that he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
What exactly is causing the change? Five of Darnold’s advanced passing statistics, as measured by Pro Football Reference, tell the story.
1. Air Yards per Completion
Darnold’s air yards per completion this season is the highest of any season in his seven-year career. The primary factor in this change is almost surely star WR Justin Jefferson, who has consistently ranked near the top of the NFL in yards per route run. WR2 Jordan Addison and WR3 Jalen Nailor also have the potential to take the top off a defense, and HC Kevin O’Connell is not shy when it comes to throwing the ball downfield.
2. Completion Percentage
Give Darnold some credit, too: his completion percentage and on-target percentage are the highest of his career. This is especially impressive considering that he has achieved a higher completion percentage all while targeting deeper receivers.
3. Play-Action Rate
Darnold’s play-action rate is the highest of his career. Most of the credit for this likely goes to HC and offensive play caller Kevin O’Connell, who has artfully and successfully used play action throughout his career. Play action generally correlates with improved passing numbers, so it is unsurprising that Darnold has seen improvement in a system that employs it more frequently.
4. Drop Rate
Another win for the Vikings’ receiving corps: they have the lowest drop rate of any receiver group that Darnold has thrown to as a starting QB. Jordan Addison’s one-handed touchdown catch against the Colts was a great example of the excellent hands from which Darnold has benefited.
5. Yards per Scramble
Darnold has a slightly higher yards per scramble average than in any of his previous seasons. This may, in part, be a consequence of the relatively small sample size, but it may also be a testament to the skill of the Vikings’ receivers, who command the defense’s full attention on every pass play, leaving no one free to worry about the QB.
In summary, Darnold’s improvement is due to a combination of factors—better coaching, better receiving, better passing, and just enough quality from the O-line has allowed Darnold to take the step forward we were all hoping for.
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